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Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 11
2014-09-12 22:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 122034 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014 Conventional satellite imagery indicates that the northerly shear has shifted westward in tandem with the upper-level low over central Mexico, and is impeding the entire western portion of Odile. TAFB and SAB current intensity estimates are 45 and 65 kt respectively, and the objective ADT intensity estimate is 57 kt. As a compromise, the initial intensity remains at 55 kt. The upper-level low over central Mexico is weakening and slowly lifting northwestward which should allow the cyclone to be in a more conducive environment with a more diffluent pattern aloft and decreased shear. Therefore, strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours or so. Beyond that time, Odile will be traversing cooler sea surface temperatures, which should induce a steady weakening trend. The intensity forecast is an update of this morning's advisory and is near the SHIPS statistical/dynamical model. Odile has temporarily halted, but the 12-hour averaged motion is a westward drift at 2 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast to build over northern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next several days, which is expected to cause Odile to accelerate northwestward through day 5. The dynamical guidance remains relatively unchanged on this forecast synoptic pattern, and the new official forecast is basically an update of the previous package. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 15.6N 104.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 15.7N 105.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 16.4N 106.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 17.5N 107.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 19.3N 109.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 22.4N 112.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 24.0N 115.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 25.0N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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