je.st
news
Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 12
2014-09-13 04:54:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 130253 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014 While the center of Odile is still outside of the main convective area, the cyclone has recently developed a strong curved convective band over the eastern semicircle. This suggests that the vertical wind shear is decreasing. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range from 45 to 65 kt, and there has been little change in these estimates since the last advisory. Based on this, the initial intensity remains 55 kt. The cirrus outflow is improving and is now good to excellent in all directions except the north. Odile has started a slow northwestward motion of 315/3 during the past several hours. A mid-level ridge is forecast to build over northern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula soon, which is expected to cause Odile to accelerate northwestward for the next several days. The guidance shows a little more spread than before, and it is also showing a somewhat faster forward speed after 72 hours. The new forecast track is adjusted to the right based on the current position and motion, and is a little faster than the previous forecast after 72 hours. The new track forecast is in the center of the track guidance envelope. The large-scale models suggest that Odile should be in a light shear environment for the next 48 hours while the cyclone passes over sea surface temperatures near 29 deg C. This should allow steady strengthening. Despite this, most of the intensity guidance shows less intensification than it did during the previous cycle. The intensity forecast still calls for a peak of 90 kt in 48 hours, but shows a slower development rate than before. After the peak, Odile should weaken when it encounters cooler waters. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 16.2N 105.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 16.6N 105.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 17.5N 107.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 18.9N 108.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 20.7N 110.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 23.5N 113.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 25.5N 116.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 26.5N 117.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||