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Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 2
2014-09-10 16:36:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED SEP 10 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 101435 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 800 AM PDT WED SEP 10 2014 Deep convection has increased to the west of the center during the past few hours, and microwave images show increasing organization of the low-level center. Dvorak classifications were 3.0/45 kt from TAFB and 2.0/30 kt from SAB. Using a blend of these estimates yields an initial wind speed of 35 kt, making the cyclone Tropical Storm Odile. Odile has been moving slowly northwestward for the last several hours, and a continued northwestward or north-northwestward drift is forecast during the next day or two while the cyclone remains in weak steering currents. In 2 to 3 days, the cyclone is anticipated to feel more influence from mid-level ridging to its north and northeast, and that should cause Odile to move at a faster pace to the northwest. Although the models are in fair agreement on this overall scenario, the big question is how close to the southwestern coast of Mexico does the center of the storm get. The ECMWF and HWRF models are on the right side of the guidance and bring the center of Odile very near or over the coast of southwestern Mexico. Conversely, the GFS and GFS ensemble mean, which are on the left side of the guidance, keep the center of Odile well offshore. The NHC track forecast is again between these solutions and brings Odile just off of southwestern Mexico in 3 to 4 days, and near the southern Baja peninsula by the end of the forecast period. Steady strengthening is expected for at least the next few days while the storm remains in low to moderate shear, a highly moist environment, and over very warm 30 C water. The only limiting factor could be land interaction. The NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly faster rate of strengthening than the previous one, but is lower than the SHIPS guidance. A tropical storm watch could be needed for a portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico later today. Regardless, locally heavy rains are possible across that area later this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 14.9N 102.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 15.1N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 15.3N 103.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 15.5N 103.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 15.9N 103.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 17.6N 104.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 20.9N 107.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 24.0N 111.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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