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Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 4
2014-09-11 04:41:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT WED SEP 10 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 110240 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 800 PM PDT WED SEP 10 2014 Odile's low-level center remains exposed on the northeastern edge of the deep convection due to about 15 kt of north-northeasterly shear. The Dvorak satellite estimate from TAFB is still 45 kt, while the estimate from SAB has increased to 35 kt, so the initial intensity is raised to 40 kt. The vertical shear is expected to gradually abate during the next 24 or so, which should allow Odile to steadily strengthen. After that time, low shear and very warm waters should support a faster rate of intensification, and Odile is forecast to become a hurricane in about 36 hours. The SHIPS model is still the most aggressive intensity model, showing Odile reaching major hurricane status by day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is very close to an average of the SHIPS and LGEM models and is only a little higher than the previous forecast at days 3 and 4. Odile is slowing down in weak steering flow, and the initial motion estimate is 310/3 kt. The cyclone is expected to remain in this environment for another 48 hours and will likely meander or drift generally west-northwestward during this time. By day 3, a mid-level high over the northern Gulf of Mexico is forecast to expand westward over Mexico and cause Odile to accelerate toward the northwest through the end of the forecast period. The track guidance has again shifted westward on this cycle, and now all of the models, except for the GFDL, bring the center of Odile west of the Baja California peninsula on days 4 and 5. The updated NHC track forecast lies to the west of the previous forecast and the model consensus TVCE, especially after 48 hours. However, the most reliable global models, the GFS and ECMWF, are even farther west, and additional adjustments to the NHC forecast may be required on future advisories. Even though the forecast track has shifted a little further away from the Mexican coast, there is a lot of uncertainty about how big Odile's wind field will get in a couple of days. Most of the guidance shows a significant increase in the 34-kt wind radii, and on this basis, the Government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for the southwestern coast of Mexico from Lazaro Cardenas to Manzanillo. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 15.5N 103.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 15.6N 103.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 15.6N 104.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 15.7N 104.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 16.2N 104.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 18.0N 106.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 15/0000Z 21.0N 110.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 16/0000Z 24.0N 113.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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