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Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 5
2014-09-11 10:32:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 110832 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 200 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2014 Odile has a classic shear pattern in infrared imagery, with the center located along a very sharp gradient in cloud top temperatures on the northeast side of the main convective cloud mass. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were both T3.0/45 kt, and that is the initial intensity for this advisory. The SHIPS model and UW-CIMSS satellite analysis show moderate northeasterly shear affecting the cyclone, and this should continue for the next 24 to 36 hours. This shear will likely keep Odile from intensifying too quickly despite otherwise favorable conditions. After that time, the shear should lessen and steadier intensification is expected. The SHIPS model continues to have the most aggressive forecast, and shows Odile reaching major hurricane intensity in about 72 hours. The official forecast is similar to the previous one and is roughly between the SHIPS model and the IVCN consensus aid. The initial motion estimate is 270/02, as Odile appears to have been drifting westward over the past few hours. Steering currents will remain weak for the next 24 to 36 hours, and during this time much of the GFS-based guidance now shows Odile making a small cyclonic loop with some southward component of motion. The ECMWF shows little motion during the first 24 hours, and a northwestward motion starting by 36 hours. The NHC forecast during the first 36 hours is a blend of these solutions and shows a slow westward drift, although some erratic motion is possible during this time. After 36 hours, Odile will come under the influence of a building subtropical ridge to its northeast, which should result in an acceleration toward the northwest through the remainder of the forecast period. The guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario with the exception of the GFDL, which continues to be a right outlier. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the left of the previous one, in part due to the initial position and motion. The NHC forecast is close to the ECMWF solution after 48 hours and is a little to the left of the TVCE multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 15.5N 104.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 15.5N 104.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 15.5N 104.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 15.5N 104.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 16.1N 105.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 18.5N 108.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 15/0600Z 21.5N 111.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 16/0600Z 24.5N 115.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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