je.st
news
Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 6
2014-09-11 16:40:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 111440 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 800 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2014 Early morning GOES-E visible images and an 1148 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass indicate that the 15-20 kt of northeasterly shear continues to displace the surface circulation to the northeast of the convective canopy. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are unchanged, and so is the initial intensity of 45 kt. Statistical and dynamical guidance agrees with the shear persisting during the next 24 hours or so. After that time, the upper wind pattern becomes conducive for intensification through the remainder of the forecast period. The intensity forecast is basically an update from the previous forecast, but now reflects strengthening to a major hurricane at the 96 hour period, which is supported by the SHIPS intensity forecast. The initial motion estimate is 265/02, which is confirmed by the fortuitous microwave image. This westward drift is should continue during the next 24 hours, although the motion could be somewhat erratic, possibly a slight jog to the southwest as indicated by a number of the deterministic models. Afterwards, the cyclone should begin a northwestward motion in response to a mid-level ridge building over northern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula. Odile will maintain a northwestward track and accelerate through day 5 which agrees with the TVCE multi-model consensus and the ECMWF/GFS (GFEX) blend. The official forecast is close to the previous advisory and sides with the aforementioned TVCE and GFEX consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 15.3N 104.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 15.4N 104.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 15.4N 104.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 15.7N 105.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 16.4N 105.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 19.0N 108.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 22.0N 112.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 24.5N 115.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||