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Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 8
2014-09-12 04:51:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 120251 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 800 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2014 Strong northeasterly shear continues to push nearly all of Odile's deep convection to the southwest of its center. The cyclone actually appears a little less organized than it did earlier today, and Dvorak final-T numbers have decreased from both TAFB and SAB. For now, however, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt based on an average of the CI numbers. The northeasterly shear over Odile is being caused by the flow on the west side of an upper-level low located over eastern Mexico. This feature is forecast to move westward, which should cause the shear over Odile to finally decrease in about 24 hours. Gradual strengthening is still forecast during that time, but lower shear should support a faster rate of intensification after 24 hours. The current shear has decreased the amount of time that Odile has for significant strengthening, and the intensity models have responded by showing much lower peak intensities in a few days. The updated NHC forecast has been adjusted downward for the entire forecast period and is near the SHIPS model solution, which is the highest of the reliable guidance. Odile has been meandering during the past few hours, and the estimated 12-hour average motion is 295/2 kt. The sheared nature of the cyclone could cause the center to continue meandering, but overall Odile should drift westward or northwestward during the next 24 hours. After that time, a strengthening mid-level ridge over Mexico is expected to cause the storm to accelerate northwestward through day 5. The track models have changed little on this scenario, and the new NHC track forecast is mainly an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 15.5N 104.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 15.5N 105.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 15.8N 105.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 16.4N 106.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 17.5N 107.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 20.4N 111.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 23.0N 115.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 24.5N 118.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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