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Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 9
2014-09-12 10:40:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 120840 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014 Deep convection has recently redeveloped closer to the center of Odile, as the shear is perhaps beginning to weaken a bit over the cyclone. Data from two ASCAT passes and a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB support maintaining the initial intensity at 50 kt. The SHIPS model shows the vertical shear gradually decreasing over the cyclone during the next day or so, which should allow for gradual intensification in the next 12 hours and steadier strengthening after that time. The intensity guidance continues to trend lower this cycle, and the NHC forecast has again been adjusted downward, but still shows Odile becoming a hurricane in about 24 hours and reaching a peak intensity of 85 kt in 72 hours. Late in the period, the cyclone will begin moving over cooler waters, which should result in steady weakening. The NHC forecast is above the latest IVCN consensus and is close to the SHIPS model at 36 hours and beyond. Odile has moved little since the previous advisory, as the cyclone remains in a region of weak steering currents. The best estimate of the initial motion is a westward drift at 2 kt. A slow westward to west-northwestward drift is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours, followed by a gradual acceleration toward the northwest as a mid-level ridge amplifies to the northeast of the cyclone. Overall, the track guidance remains in general agreement on this scenario, but much of the guidance has shifted to the right at days 4 and 5. The new NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction and is close to the EMCWF at the end of the period, but now lies to the left of the TVCE multi-model consensus. The initial 34-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on data from the aforementioned ASCAT passes, which show a large wind field in the southern semicircle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 15.5N 104.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 15.4N 105.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 15.6N 105.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 16.4N 106.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 17.8N 108.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 20.9N 112.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 23.5N 115.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 25.0N 118.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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