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Tropical Storm OLAF Forecast Discussion Number 50
2015-10-27 09:36:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 27 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 270836 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 50 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 27 2015 Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern associated with Olaf is rapidly deteriorating due to the effects of southwesterly shear and cold water. The low-level center is becoming elongated and the remnant convection is well removed from the center. Based on a recent ASCAT data, the initial intensity is set at 40 kt. Global models indicate that the cyclone will continue to decouple fast, and most likely the cyclone will degenerate into a remnant low later today, and into a trough of low pressure in a day or two. The overall circulation is moving toward the northeast at 10 kt. However, as the system becomes a shallow cyclone or a trough in about a day, it will be steered west-southwestward by the low-level flow associated with an eastward moving high pressure system to the north of Olaf. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous one and it follows the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 26.4N 136.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 27.0N 134.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 27.0N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/1800Z 26.2N 134.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/0600Z 25.5N 136.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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