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Tropical Storm Octave Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-10-18 10:34:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 180834 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 200 AM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Convection around the center briefly dissipated earlier tonight, but has since redeveloped with cloud tops colder than -70 C. Octave has a ragged appearance, and it is apparent that some northeasterly shear is affecting the cyclone. A recent ASCAT-A overpass showed several wind vectors of 35-40 kt, and therefore the initial advisory intensity has been raised to 40 kt. Octave has slowed to a crawl tonight, with an initial motion of 270/01 kt. Weak steering flow will prevail around the cyclone for the next several days, and a meandering motion is expected throughout the forecast period with a total net motion of only about 100 n mi during that time. The official NHC forecast is between the previous forecast and the track consensus guidance, which resulted in only a slight westward shift in the track beyond day 3. The intermittent bursts of convection are suggesting that the system has been trying to fight off a dry environment. In addition, the shear currently affecting the cyclone is expected to change little in the next 12-18 hours. These moderately negative factors offsetting the warm SSTs should cause Octave to not change much in intensity today. By later tonight, even drier air is expected to begin entraining into Octave's circulation, and at the same time 20-25 kt southeasterly winds aloft will begin to shear the cyclone. These increasingly hostile conditions should cause weakening to begin, and Octave is forecast to become a remnant low between 48-72 hours. The latest NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, and near the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 9.9N 127.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 10.3N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 11.0N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 11.2N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 11.0N 126.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 10.6N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0600Z 10.9N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/0600Z 11.2N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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