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Tropical Storm Octave Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-10-19 04:33:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 190233 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019 Octave's convection has waxed and waned since the tropical storm formed yesterday, and it's once again trending upward. Convection redeveloped in the northwest quadrant of the cyclone during the past few hours, staving off remnant low status for now. The intensity remains 35 kt, based on earlier ASCAT data. The global models indicate that upper-level winds will become unfavorable for the continued maintenance of deep convection on Saturday, so Octave is still not expected to last much longer as a tropical cyclone. The new NHC forecast maintains Octave as a tropical storm for 12 more hours, but this could be generous. Once it becomes a remnant low, occasional disorganized patches of convection will probably be enough to maintain a weak low for at least a few more days, but it is not expected to make any kind of significant comeback. Octave has continued to move northward, now at 4 kt. The shallow tropical storm is caught between low-level southwesterly flow to its south and easterly trade-wind flow to its north, and the dynamical guidance is in extremely poor agreement on which flow regime will dominate the motion of the cyclone after it becomes post-tropical over the weekend. A few models (including the ECMWF and HMON) forecast that neither regime will dominate and Octave will move very little for the next 5 days. The overall model spread is over 600 miles by day 5, but I have no reason to favor any one track over the others at this point. Therefore, the official track forecast is largely unchanged and lies near the middle of the unusually wide guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 11.5N 126.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 11.9N 126.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 11.9N 126.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/1200Z 11.6N 125.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/0000Z 11.2N 125.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/0000Z 11.4N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/0000Z 12.5N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/0000Z 13.0N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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