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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-11-04 15:45:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST Wed Nov 04 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 041444 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 700 AM PST Wed Nov 04 2020 Over the last 6 h Odalys has exhibited a bursting pattern with cloud tops colder than -70C occuring to the northeast of the estimated low-level center. The center itself has been a bit difficult to locate overnight but is estimated to be on the southwest edge of this recent convective activity. Satellite estimates from SAB and TAFB were 35 kt and 45 kt respectively, but the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt for this advisory out of respect for overnight ASCAT data that supported the lower value and the fact that the structure of the cyclone hasn't changed much since then. Odalys is now moving to the northwest with a similar forward motion 315/14 kt. This motion is expected to continue in the short term as the storm is being steered between a mid-level ridge centered over Northern Mexico to its northeast and a deep-layer trough centered to its northwest. After 24 h, Odalys is expect to become a shallow system as its convection gets stripped away by the deep layer trough. Its track will bend back west and then west-southwest as it comes under the influence of northeasterly trade wind flow associated with a low-level anticyclone off the southwestern US coast. The latest track guidance remains in good agreement of this evolution and only minor modifications were made to the forecast track owing to the slightly further north initial position. While small fluctuations in intensity associated with periodic convective bursts are possible today, southwesterly vertical wind shear is already increasing over the system and will soon be importing very dry mid-level air over the low-level circulation. This will ultimately lead to the tropical storm's demise as it moves over marginally warm sea surface temperatures. The intensity forecast was held at the current intensity for the first 24 h with gradual weakening thereafter. Odalys is expected to become a remnant low by Friday and dissipate entirely by the end of the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 16.9N 119.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 17.9N 120.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 18.7N 122.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 18.8N 124.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 18.4N 125.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0000Z 17.6N 126.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1200Z 16.6N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1200Z 15.5N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky
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