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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-11-05 03:36:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM PST Wed Nov 04 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 050236 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 700 PM PST Wed Nov 04 2020 Odalys has devolved into a sheared tropical cyclone, with the bulk of the deep convection displaced to the northeast of the now fully exposed low-level circulation center. The initial intensity has been held at 40 kt based on a blend of Dvorak satellite current intensity (CI) estimates of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T2.5/35 kt from SAB. A 04/2142 UTC UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 40 kt also supports this intensity. Odalys is now moving west-northwestward, or 295/09 kt. The cyclone is expected to gradually turn more westward during the next 24 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the west as Odalys degenerates into a shallow low pressure system. By 48 hours and beyond, the remnant low is forecast to move west-southwestward to southwestward under the influence of low-level northeasterly trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the simple-consensus track model, TVCE. The current southwesterly deep-layer vertical wind shear of near 30 kt is forecast to steadily increase to 40 kt during the next 72 hours. Sea-surface temperatures decreasing to less than 26 deg C will also help hasten the weakening process during that time, resulting in Odalys becoming a remnant low in about 36 hours, followed by dissipation in 96 hours, if not sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the simple-consensus intensity models IVCN and ICON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 18.1N 121.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 18.7N 123.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 18.9N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 18.6N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0000Z 17.9N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/1200Z 17.0N 128.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0000Z 16.2N 129.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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