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Tropical Storm Odalys Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-11-05 21:54:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 052054 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020 100 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020 Deep convection associated with Odalys has largely dissipated over the past 6-9 h with just a remnant swirl of low clouds surrounding the center. Satellite estimates from SAB and TAFB continue to decrease and a recent ASCAT pass confirmed that the wind field has begun to spin down, with maximum sustained winds near 35 kt. As anticipated, the combination of high southwesterly vertical wind shear greater than 30 kt and dry mid-level air around 40 percent as diagnosed from ECMWF-SHIPS guidance has lead to a collapse of deep central convection. Even though sea surface temperatures under Odalys remain marginally warm around 26 C, vertical wind shear and mid-level dry air are forecast to become even more hostile over the next 24 h. Therefore, the latest official forecast now anticipates Odalys to become a remnant low in 24 h. Degeneration to a remnant low could occur as quickly as this evening if organized deep convection does not redevelop soon. The initial motion of the cyclone is estimated near 280/6 kt, and a due westward motion is expected within the next few hours. Odalys is now a shallow cyclone, and will primarily be steered by low-level northeasterly trade wind flow, gradually bending from a west to southwest heading over the next 24-36 h. The NHC forecast track shows a slightly sharper turn to the the southwest now that the cyclone has become more shallow, but the official track remains near the track guidance consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 18.5N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 18.3N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 17.7N 125.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0600Z 17.0N 126.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1800Z 16.4N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/0600Z 15.9N 127.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky
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