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Tropical Storm Olaf Public Advisory Number 13
2021-09-10 22:45:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 540 WTPZ35 KNHC 102045 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Olaf Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 ...OLAF WEAKENING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 112.7W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Baja California Sur Mexico south of Santa Fe and around the peninsula to Loreto. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Puerto San Andresito southward to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected or occurring somewhere within the tropical storm warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 112.7 West. Olaf is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected tonight and Saturday, followed by a southwestward motion beginning on Saturday night and continuing into early next week. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will move away from the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Olaf is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. A weather station at Puerto Cortes reported a wind gust of 38 mph (61 km/h) during the past couple of hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring within portions of the tropical storm warning area, but are expected to subside during the next several hours. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across portions of southern Baja California Sur through tonight. This rainfall may trigger life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in regions of onshore winds within the warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. SURF: Swells generated by Olaf will affect portions of the coasts of Nayarit and Sinaloa through this evening, and portions of the west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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