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Tropical Storm Ophelia Forecast Discussion Number 8
2017-10-11 04:36:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 10 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 110236 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 10 2017 Ophelia has lost some of its outer banding this evening, but a well-defined band of convection remains over the southeastern and southern portion of the circulation. A 2322 UTC ASCAT overpass again suggests that the winds are not as strong what is indicated by the Dvorak satellite estimates. The highest winds in the ASCAT pass were 35 kt, but with some undersampling consideration the initial intensity is set to 45 kt. Ophelia is moving southeastward or 140/5 kt. The cyclone should continue to move southeastward or east-southeastward during the next 24 hours while it remains embedded within a mid- to upper-level trough. After that time, Ophelia is forecast to turn eastward, then northeastward and begin to accelerate by day 3 ahead of a deepening mid-latitude trough over the north-central Atlantic. The latest run of the GFS shifted eastward and is very similar to the 12Z ECMWF, and the previous NHC track forecast. These typically reliable models are along the southern edge of the track envelope, and the NHC forecast remains there as well. The cyclone is expected to be within a low shear environment and over marginally warm sea surface temperatures during the next 2 to 3 days. These conditions favor strengthening and the NHC forecast again calls for Ophelia to become a hurricane in about 36 hours, although the forecast wind speed through 24 hours is slightly less than the previous advisory due to the lower initial intensity. Later in the period, baroclinic dynamics are expected to keep Ophelia a strong cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic through day 5 when the system is forecast to become fully extratropical. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 30.7N 37.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 30.3N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 30.1N 36.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 30.2N 36.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 30.7N 35.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 32.5N 30.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 15/0000Z 35.7N 23.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 16/0000Z 41.0N 14.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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