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Tropical Storm PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 4
2015-10-21 10:41:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 210841 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 400 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 The cloud pattern of the storm is not well organized at this time, with not much deep convection concentrated near the estimated center position. There is also a lack of well-defined banding features. The current intensity estimate is held at 35 kt, in agreement with a Dvorak CI Value from TAFB. The center is not easy to track on nighttime imagery, with a significant spread in fix locations from TAFB and SAB, and the initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 270/6 kt. The primary steering features over the next few days are a mid-tropospheric trough extending southward into extreme northwestern Mexico and a high over the Gulf of Mexico. This flow regime should cause Patricia to turn gradually to the right over the next few days, and cross the coast of southwestern Mexico within 72 hours or so. The official track forecast resembles the previous one but is a little faster, and is close to the new model consensus. This is between the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions. Although the tropical cyclone has not strengthened significantly thus far, the environment seems to be quite conducive for intensification. With very warm sea surface temperatures near 30 deg C, light vertical shear, and a very moist atmosphere likely to prevail during the next couple of days, Patricia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by tomorrow. The official intensity forecast is close to the LGEM guidance, but it should be noted that if the system develops a well-defined inner core, rapid intensification is certainly possible. Note that in the official wind speed forecast shown here, additional strengthening is implied after the 48 hour forecast and up until landfall. Based on the new 48-hour forecast location and the predicted wind radii, A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Watch have been issued for portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 13.0N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 13.2N 97.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 14.0N 99.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 15.1N 101.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 23/0600Z 16.5N 103.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 24/0600Z 20.5N 104.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/0600Z 23.0N 104.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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