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Tropical Storm PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 5
2015-10-21 16:39:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 211439 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1000 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 Conventional and microwave satellite data show that Patricia remains poorly organized. The low-level circulation is elongated from north to south, and there is little evidence of a tight inner core. While the convection is vigorous, it is occurring mainly in an almost linear area west and south of the center. The latest satellite intensity estimates are unchanged since the previous advisory, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt. Patricia is moving faster toward the west with an initial motion of 270/10. There is no change to the track forecast philosophy. The tropical cyclone is expected to initially move westward to west-northwestward on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. After about 24 hours, Patricia is expected to turn northwestward and northward between the ridge and a deep- layer trough over northwestern Mexico and the adjacent northeastern Pacific. The model guidance is in excellent agreement with this scenario and forecasts landfall along the coast of southwestern Mexico between 48-72 hours. The new forecast track is similar to, but a little faster than, the previous track, and it lies in the middle of the tightly clustered track guidance. Continued light shear and warm sea surface temperatures are favorable conditions for Patricia to strengthen if the storm can overcome its current disorganized condition. Based on the premise that this will happen, the intensity forecast is identical to that of the previous advisory in calling for the cyclone to become a hurricane in about 36 hours and continue strengthening through landfall. Several of the guidance models forecast a higher peak intensity than the official, and rapid intensification remains a possibility given the favorable environment. After landfall, Patricia should quickly weaken and dissipate over the mountains of western Mexico. There are no changes to the watches for the coast of Mexico at this time. Warnings my be required for portions of the watch area later today or tonight. It should be noted that several of the global models develop a low pressure area over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico in four to five days. At this time, it appears that this system will be a non-tropical low that absorbs the remnants and moisture of Patricia moving northeastward across Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 12.9N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 13.4N 99.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 14.5N 101.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 15.7N 103.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 17.3N 103.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 21.5N 104.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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