je.st
news
Tropical Storm PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-10-21 23:05:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 212105 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 400 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Patricia has become much better organized since this morning. The aircraft reported 850 mb flight-level winds of 59 kt about 15 n mi southeast of the center along with surface wind estimates of 50-55 kt from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer. The minimum pressure estimated from the aircraft data is 995 mb. Based on this information the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt. The storm has continued to accelerate, possibly aided be some reformation of the center, and the initial motion is now 275/14. Other than this, the track forecast scenario from the previous advisory still looks good. The tropical cyclone is expected to initially move westward to west-northwestward on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. After 12-24 hours, Patricia is expected to turn northwestward and northward between the ridge and a deep-layer trough over northwestern Mexico and the adjacent northeastern Pacific. While the model guidance remains in excellent agreement with this scenario, there has been a westward shift since the previous advisory, and the forecast track is also adjusted westward. However, the new forecast track is a little to the east of the center of the guidance envelope. Now that Patricia has become better organized, it should strengthen for the next 48 hours or so until a combination of increasing shear and land interaction halts intensification. The intensity guidance is forecasting a stronger peak intensity than previously, and the new intensity forecast is adjusted upward accordingly. The new forecast is in good agreement with the intensity consensus. However, some of the models continue to forecast a stronger peak intensity, and it is possible that Patricia could rapidly intensify into a stronger system than currently forecast. After landfall, Patricia should quickly weaken and dissipate over the mountains of western Mexico. The current forecast track requires a hurricane warning for the southwestern coast of Mexico at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 13.1N 99.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 13.8N 101.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 14.8N 103.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 16.3N 104.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 18.1N 104.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 23.0N 104.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||