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Tropical Storm Pablo Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-10-25 22:36:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 25 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 252036 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 500 PM AST Fri Oct 25 2019 High-resolution visible satellite imagery gave us a surprise today. A tropical cyclone has formed within a larger extratropical cyclone in the northeastern Atlantic. This is not unique and has occurred several times in the past, primarily during the latter part of the hurricane season. Pablo is a very small-scale tropical cyclone, but ASCAT data clearly show a well-defined but small circulation with 40-kt winds embedded within the larger low. This is the intensity assigned to the cyclone for this advisory. The cloud pattern consists of an eye-type feature surrounded by a ring of deep convection. Given the small size of the cyclone, and the baroclinic environment, the intensity forecast is highly uncertain. At this time, the NHC forecast calls for a small increase in the winds and for the cyclone to become extratropical in about 36 hours. However, this transition could occur sooner than anticipated. Pablo is currently moving toward the east-southeast at about 9 kt while embedded within the circulation of the larger extratropical low. Pablo should then turn toward the northeast with some increase in forward speed, as indicated by the multi-model consensus aids. In fact, all the models are in very good agreement, and the NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope. Given that Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low, which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products already account for the strong winds and high waves. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 35.8N 32.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 35.3N 30.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 36.3N 26.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 40.0N 23.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 43.0N 21.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 28/1800Z 46.5N 20.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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