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Tropical Storm Pablo Forecast Discussion Number 11
2019-10-28 09:35:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Oct 28 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 280835 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 500 AM AST Mon Oct 28 2019 Convection associated with Pablo has decreased significantly in both coverage and vertical depth during the past 6 hours, and the system barely meets the convective criterion to be classified as a tropical cyclone. What bit of convection that does remain is limited to the southeastern quadrant. The advisory intensity of 45 kt is based on a TAFB T-number classification of T3.0/45 kt and an earlier ASCAT pass that showed some 45-kt vectors present in the southeastern quadrant. Pablo made a jog toward the northwest since the previous advisory, but the small cyclone now appears to be moving slowly northward or 360/04 kt. The latest model guidance remains in reasonable agreement that Pablo and its remnants will move slowly northward for the next day or so around the northeastern periphery of a large extratropical centered several hundred miles to the southwest. Pablo is expected to merge with the frontal zone and become post-tropical later today. Some additional weakening is likely during the next 24 hours due to Pablo moving over even cooler sea-surface temperatures than the 16.5 deg C water that the cyclone is currently passing over. Pablo's 34-kt wind radii have been separated from the larger parent extratropical low's wind field based on late-arriving ASCAT surface wind data that indicated that Pablo's small wind field a had detached from the larger wind radii associated with the broad extratropical low. Additional information on this complex low pressure system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the NOAA National Weather Service High Seas Forecasts under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 46.6N 17.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 47.3N 17.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 29/0600Z 48.1N 17.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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