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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-10-13 16:52:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 131452 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Pamela Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 Pamela is estimated to have made landfall around 1200 UTC close to Estacion Dimas in the Mexican state of Sinaloa as a 65-kt hurricane. To the southeast of the landfall location, observations from the Mazatlan Airport indicated wind gusts to 40 kt had occurred. There was also a storm chaser located at Marmor de Salcido, Mexico, who measured a minimum pressure of 990.8 mb with southeasterly winds to 20 kt at 1208 UTC. Thus, based on these data, the estimated landfall location and an estimated minimum central pressure of 987 mb appears reasonable. Vigorous deep convection is still occuring around Pamela's estimated center as it moves farther inland. However, since the center has been onshore for a few hours now, the wind field is likely starting to spin down and maximum sustained winds are estimated to have decreased to 55 kt. The tropical cyclone has been accelerating to the northeast this morning, with the latest estimated motion at 045/20 kt. Further acceleration to the northeast is expected as the system remains embedded in deep-layer southwesterly flow between a long-wave trough over the western United States and a mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico. The track guidance is in good agreement on this solution with the storm losing its identity after the 12-h forecast period and the latest track forecast remains close to the model consensus solutions. Pamela's circulation is not forecast to survive the passage over the high, rugged terrain of Central Mexico, but its remnants are expected to contain a large slug of deep-layer moisture that will be advected northeastward into the south-central United States. Additional heavy rainfall and flooding impacts are anticipated later today and on Thursday for these areas. Key Messages: 1. Although Pamela is moving inland into west-central Mexico this morning, a Tropical Storm warning remains in effect from Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa where tropical storm conditions are still expected for the next several hours. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Heavy rains associated with Pamela will continue across the Mexican States of Sinaloa, western Durgano, and northern Nayarit through today. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma today into Thursday. This may result in considerable flash and urban flooding impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 24.4N 106.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 12H 14/0000Z 26.6N 102.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Papin
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