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Tropical Storm Paul Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-09-09 10:43:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Sep 09 2018 441 WTPZ43 KNHC 090843 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 200 AM PDT Sun Sep 09 2018 Satellite data indicate that depression has strengthened. The cyclone has a large curved band that wraps across the western half of the circulation, but banding features remain limited to the east of the center. A partial ASCAT pass from a few hours ago showed 30-35 kt winds in the southeastern quadrant. Based on that data and the 2.5/35 kt Dvorak classification from TAFB, the initial intensity is increased to 35 kt, making the system Tropical Storm Paul. Paul will likely strengthen some more during the next couple of days while it remains over warm waters and in a relatively moist environment. However, significant strengthening appears unlikely because of continued moderate east-northeasterly shear during the next day or so. The opportunity for intensification should end in a few days when the system moves over SSTs cooler than 26 deg C and into a drier and more stable air mass. The NHC intensity forecast is again nudged downward, but it still lies at the high end of the model guidance. Satellite fixes suggest that Paul has turned sharper to the northwest than expected. Smoothing through the fixes yields an initial motion estimate of 320/7. A continued northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two. After that time, Paul should turn to the west-northwest in response to a mid-level ridge to its north and then slow down by the end of the forecast period when it becomes shallow and is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track has been adjusted northward to account for the change in the initial motion and position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 17.1N 117.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 18.2N 118.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 19.4N 119.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 20.6N 120.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 21.4N 122.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 22.6N 126.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 23.5N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 24.5N 131.3W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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