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Tropical Storm Paul Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-09-09 16:42:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 09 2018 213 WTPZ43 KNHC 091442 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 09 2018 Paul has not strengthened since the last advisory. Satellite imagery shows that the disorganized low-level center is located on the northeastern edge of the main convective mass, while the cyclone is being influenced by fairly strong easterly shear. The advisory intensity is held at 35 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Although the shear is forecast to relax during the next couple of days, Paul will then be moving over marginal SSTs and into a drier air mass. Therefore only modest strengthening is predicted during the next day or so, followed by a leveling off of the intensity. The official forecast is a little below the previous one, but above most of the latest numerical guidance. Paul is moving slowly northwestward, or 320/7 kt. The cyclone is expected to continue northwestward on the western side of a weak mid-level ridge over the next day or so. Later in the forecast period, a ridge to the north of the system should cause Paul to turn toward the west-northwest. The official track forecast is similar to the previous NHC prediction and close to the dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 17.9N 118.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 18.9N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 20.1N 120.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 21.1N 121.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 21.8N 123.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 22.8N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 23.7N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 14/1200Z 24.5N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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