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Tropical Storm Paul Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-09-10 04:31:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 09 2018 942 WTPZ43 KNHC 100231 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 09 2018 Paul is looking very ragged this evening. The low-level center has become completely exposed, with the nearest deep convection displaced about 70 n mi to its southwest. The intensity has been held at 40 kt, deferring to earlier ASCAT data which showed a wide swath of 35-40 kt winds. Given the structure of Paul, any intensification seems very unlikely, so gradual weakening is now forecast through the end of the period. By day 4, a combination of cold SSTs and dry, stable air should cause the cyclone to become a remnant low. The new NHC forecast shows faster weakening than before, and is now closer to the intensity consensus through 120 h. The low-level swirl that makes up most of Paul has wobbled a bit this evening, but a longer-term motion estimate is still northwestward, or 320/9 kt. The global models are in good agreement that Paul will continue northwestward for another day or so, before gradually turning westward as it weakens and eventually becomes a remnant low. No significant changes were made to the track forecast, which remains very near the multi-model consensus throughout the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 19.4N 119.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 20.4N 120.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 21.2N 121.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 21.9N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 22.4N 125.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 23.1N 128.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 23.5N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0000Z 23.5N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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