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Tropical Storm Paul Forecast Discussion Number 8
2018-09-10 10:45:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018 630 WTPZ43 KNHC 100845 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018 Paul's poorly defined surface circulation remains displaced well to the east of an intermittent burst of deep convection. A 0448 UTC ASCAT-A pass covering the western semicircle showed only 30 kt winds. Based on the scatterometer pass, and a blend of the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and an earlier 0228 UTC SATCON analysis of 37 kt, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt. The UW-CIMSS shear analysis indicates 15-20 kt of east-northeasterly shear impeding the eastern side of the cyclone. The Decay SHIPS intensity model shows the shear diminishing within the next 24 hours or so, however, Paul will be moving over cooler waters and into a more stable thermodynamic environment. Therefore, weakening is forecast in 36 hours, or less, and Paul is expected to degenerate into a remnant low in 3 days. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is based on the NOAA-HCCA and IVCN consensus models. The exposed surface circulation continues to move a bit erratically this morning, but the 12 hour motion is an uncertain northwestward, or 320/8 kt. Paul should continue to move within the mid-level steering flow produced by a ridge to the north through day 3, then a turn westward is indicated as the vertically shallower cyclone moves within the low-level trades. The NHC track forecast is an update of the last one, and agrees with the various consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 20.1N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 20.8N 120.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 21.5N 122.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 22.1N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 22.5N 125.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 23.4N 128.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/0600Z 23.6N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0600Z 23.6N 132.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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