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Tropical Storm Paul Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-09-10 16:37:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018 734 WTPZ43 KNHC 101437 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018 Paul continues to have its low-level center displaced on the northeast side of the main area of deep convection. This convection is not well organized and there is little or no evidence of banding features. The current intensity estimate remains 35 kt, which is a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB along with an ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS. Over the next few days, Paul will be moving into a drier air mass and over a cooler ocean. This should cause weakening, and the system if forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in 72 hours, if not sooner There is significant spread in the center fixes, so the initial motion is a rather uncertain 320/9 kt. A gradual turn to the west-northwest is forecast due to a mid-level ridge the north of Paul. Later in the period, the increasingly shallow cyclonic circulation should turn more to the west, following the low-level flow. The official forecast is similar to the previous NHC track an close to the correct model consensus, HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 20.8N 120.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 21.4N 121.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 21.9N 123.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 22.3N 125.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 22.7N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 23.5N 129.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1200Z 23.8N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1200Z 24.0N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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