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Tropical Storm Pilar Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-09-24 04:56:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240256 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182017 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017 The structure of the cyclone near Mexico has improved over the past 6 hours. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB now support an estimated intensity of 35 kt, so the system is now classified as Tropical Storm Pilar. The initial motion based on recent satellite fixes is 350/4 kt. Pilar is still expected to move generally toward the north-northwest or north to the east of a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico for the next couple of days, and the primary source of uncertainty in the forecast is possible interaction with land. Due in part to initial position uncertainty, the global models vary on whether Pilar will clip the coast of Jalisco or remain just offshore, but the model consensus now shows a landfall in about 24 hours. The NHC forecast has been adjusted slightly to the east toward the model consensus, but it is certainly possible that the tropical storm could remain offshore and enter the Gulf of California. Regardless of whether the center makes landfall or not, heavy rain is still likely along the coast of Mexico through early next week. The possibility of land interaction makes the intensity forecast particularly difficult. Very warm SSTs and only moderate shear should allow for some strengthening for at least the next 36 hours. However, if Pilar makes landfall sooner than that, it will likely quickly weaken. Since my track forecast shows Pilar making landfall in about 24 hours, my intensity forecast peaks at that time, and shows steady weakening thereafter. Beginning around 48 h, the GFS and ECMWF show that the shear will increase substantially, which should cause Pilar to quickly become a remnant low, even if it remains over water. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 18.7N 105.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 19.3N 105.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 20.3N 105.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 21.1N 105.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 21.9N 105.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 23.3N 106.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0000Z 24.7N 107.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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