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Tropical Storm Pilar Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-09-24 22:53:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 242053 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182017 400 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017 Pilar continues this afternoon to be a problematic system. Fortunately, a 1426Z GPM 36 GHz image suggested that the system's center was very close to Cabo Corrientes at that time. This allowed for a somewhat better estimate of the initial position and motion (350 degrees at 7 kt). Pilar is being advected around a deep-layer ridge located over central Mexico. Despite the initial continued movement at around 7 kt this afternoon, the guidance insists that Pilar should soon slow down. The official forecast track is quite similar to the previous one, with a course along or just west of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Fortunately, the model guidance came into better agreement with the track prediction, though some of the model's trackers could not explicitly follow the weak vortex beyond a day or so into the future. Because of Pilar having some of its circulation over the high terrain of southwestern Mexico, some weakening has likely occurred. The initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt, based upon a blend of the TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications. While the SSTs are warm and the vertical shear is only moderate for the day or so, continued interaction with land is likely to prevent any re-intensification. After about 24 hours, the vertical shear should go way up, as Pilar is affected by strong southerlies associated with a vigorous mid- to upper-tropospheric trough over the southwestern United States. The official intensity forecast is closest to a blend of the LGEM statistical scheme and the HWRF dynamical model, and is just slightly below the previous advisory. An alternative scenario is for Pilar to dissipate substantially sooner because of the land interactions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 20.8N 105.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 21.8N 106.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 22.5N 106.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 23.0N 106.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 23.5N 107.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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