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Tropical Storm RICK Forecast Discussion Number 11
2015-11-21 03:34:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 210234 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 800 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2015 Rick remains a poorly organized tropical cyclone, with the low-level center exposed to the northwest of a small area of deep convection. The initial wind speed estimate remains 35 kt, following the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB, but it would not be surprising if the system were a little weaker. The continued influence of dry stable air and an increase in shear should prevent strengthening, or cause some weakening, of Rick during the next day or so. In about 2 days, Rick is forecast to become a remnant low when it is expected to be over cool waters and in hostile atmospheric conditions. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest consensus prediction. Satellite fixes indicate that the center of Rick has moved a little to the north and is slightly faster than the previous track, and the latest initial motion estimate is 290/11 kt. A motion toward the west-northwest to northwest is expected during the next couple of days while the cyclone moves along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. After that time, the shallow cyclone will likely drift northwestward or northward when it becomes embedded in weak steering currents. The latest NHC track forecast is slightly to the north of the previous one in the short term, but is otherwise largely an update. This forecast is in best agreement with GFEX, a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 16.7N 112.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 17.0N 113.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 17.4N 115.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 18.2N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 19.1N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/0000Z 21.0N 119.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0000Z 21.8N 119.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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