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Tropical Storm RICK Forecast Discussion Number 13
2015-11-21 15:33:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 211432 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 700 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2015 The center of Rick continues to be exposed to the northwest of bursting area of deep convection. The initial intensity remains 35 kt, perhaps generously, based on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The SHIPS model based off GFS model fields shows that the mid-level relative humidity is now below 50 percent and shear will be increasing above 20 kt in the next 24 to 48 hours. These factors, along with cooling SSTs along the track, should result in Rick weakening to a depression later today, and becoming a remnant low in about 36 hours. The initial motion estimate is 290/11, and Rick should gradually slow down and turn poleward during the next 2 to 3 days as the ridge to the north weakens due to an eastward moving mid/upper-level trough. Late in the period, the shallow remnant of Rick should move slowly northward to northeastward in weak low-level flow prior to dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and is close to the latest GFS/ECMWF consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 17.3N 115.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 17.7N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 18.6N 117.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 19.8N 118.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1200Z 20.8N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1200Z 22.0N 119.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1200Z 22.5N 119.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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