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Tropical Storm RICK Forecast Discussion Number 15
2015-11-22 03:39:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 220238 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 700 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2015 Rick has not changed much since yesterday. Visible satellite images from earlier this evening and microwave data indicate that the low-level center of the storm is located to the northwest of a pulsing area of deep convection. The initial intensity estimate is again held at 35 kt, in agreement with a blend of the Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Dry and stable air has been entraining into the northwestern side of the circulation for some time. The continued effects of dry air, increasing shear, and cooler waters should result in Rick weakening during the next day or so. The cyclone is expected to become a remnant low by Sunday night or early Monday when it moves over sea surface temperatures lower than 26 degrees C and is embedded in hostile atmospheric conditions. The remnant low is expected to gradually weaken and dissipate in 3 to 4 days. Rick continues to move westward at about 10 kt, and the system is a little left of the previous track prediction. The guidance continues to show Rick turning northwestward and slowing down during the next couple of days as the mid-level ridge to the north of the storm breaks down. Little motion is expected beyond a couple of days when the shallow cyclone becomes embedded in weak steering currents. The NHC official track forecast is shifted to the west of the previous one, and is in best agreement with a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 17.0N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 17.8N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 19.0N 119.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 20.0N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0000Z 20.7N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0000Z 21.3N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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