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Tropical Storm RICK Forecast Discussion Number 9
2015-11-20 15:37:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM MST FRI NOV 20 2015 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 201437 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212015 800 AM MST FRI NOV 20 2015 Rick's convective pattern remains rather unimpressive, with some ragged banding in the western semicircle and a small area of more concentrated convection south of the estimated center position. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data and the latest Dvorak Data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB. While Rick is still situated over warm waters in a low shear environment, mid- level dry air and relatively meager instability appear to be limiting intensification. All of the intensity guidance suggests only modest strengthening in the next 24 to 36 hours before the shear increases by 48 hours. The increasing shear and a track over cooler waters should result in Rick weakening to a remnant low by day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest intensity consensus. The initial motion estimate is 290/10. Rick is forecast to continue moving west-northwestward for the next 36 hours while being steered by a mid-level ridge centered over southwestern Mexico. After that time, the ridge will weaken as a deep-layer trough amplifies to the northwest of the tropical cyclone, and Rick should recurve late in the period, albeit as a shallow cyclone. The new NHC track forecast is close to the previous one through 48 hours and then is a little to the left and slower, trending toward the weaker ECMWF solution. The official forecast is much slower than the latest GFS solution at days 3 through 5, which appears too strong with Rick at those times. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 16.1N 110.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 16.7N 111.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 17.3N 113.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 17.8N 114.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 18.6N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 20.5N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1200Z 21.5N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1200Z 22.5N 117.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
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