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Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 28
2024-11-10 09:30:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 100830 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Rafael continues to gradually weaken. Satellite images show that the low-level center remains exposed, with an area of shrinking deep convection located well east of the center. The initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt, in accordance with nearby buoy observations and recent satellite intensity estimates. Gradual weakening is expected due to a harsh environment of very dry air aloft and wind shear. The system should lose organized deep convection later today and become a post-tropical cyclone in about 24 hours. Only small changes were made to the previous intensity forecast. The storm is basically drifting to the north-northwest now, and Rafael is forecast to make a small clockwise loop during the next day or so over the central Gulf of Mexico in light steering currents. After that time, the low-level flow should steer the cyclone or its remnants southward and southwestward, and the remnant low should open up into a trough of low pressure in about 3 days. The new forecast is a touch east of the previous one in the near term and also shows dissipation a little sooner based on the latest model solutions. Rafael poses no direct threat to land, but swells from the storm are still contributing to an elevated rip current risk along the northern and western Gulf Coast. Also, the interaction of distant moisture from Rafael with a slow-moving front will cause heavy rainfall and potentially significant flash flooding across portions of southwestern and central Louisiana through this morning. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 26.1N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 26.4N 91.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 26.2N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/1800Z 25.4N 90.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0600Z 24.3N 91.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/1800Z 23.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Rafael (AT3/AL182024)
2024-11-10 09:30:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RAFAEL GRADUALLY WEAKENING... As of 3:00 AM CST Sun Nov 10 the center of Rafael was located near 26.1, -91.8 with movement NNW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Rafael Public Advisory Number 28
2024-11-10 09:30:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 100830 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 300 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 ...RAFAEL GRADUALLY WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.1N 91.8W ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 91.8 West. Rafael is moving toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). The storm is expected to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through tonight, then turn toward the south and south-southwest on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected through early next week, and Rafael is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rafael can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml SURF: Swells generated by Rafael will continue impacting portions of the northern and western Gulf Coast through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Indirect rainfall associated with the moisture from Rafael is expected to lead to additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with local totals to 15 inches, across portions of southwestern and central Louisiana into this afternoon. This rain could lead to or continue significant flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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