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Tropical Storm Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2024-11-04 21:54:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 042054 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 2(14) X(14) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 2(19) X(19) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) 17(43) 1(44) X(44) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) 24(58) 1(59) 1(60) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) 1(16) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 22(33) 3(36) X(36) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14) X(14) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 5(30) 1(31) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 4(20) 1(21) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 1(13) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 9(19) 3(22) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 6(26) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 10(34) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 10(23) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 3(13) X(13) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 22(43) 2(45) 1(46) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) 1(15) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 48(53) 17(70) 1(71) X(71) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 13(30) X(30) X(30) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 3( 3) 24(27) 50(77) 4(81) 1(82) X(82) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 43(47) 6(53) 1(54) X(54) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 5(28) X(28) X(28) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 5( 5) 40(45) 27(72) 2(74) X(74) X(74) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAMAGUEY 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 12(12) 49(61) 5(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X 1( 1) 22(23) 5(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MONTEGO BAY 34 29 57(86) 1(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) MONTEGO BAY 50 1 25(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) MONTEGO BAY 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KINGSTON 34 65 12(77) X(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) KINGSTON 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Rafael Forecast Advisory Number 5
2024-11-04 21:53:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 166 WTNT23 KNHC 042053 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC MON NOV 04 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 76.7W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 76.7W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 76.4W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.8N 77.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.5N 79.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.2N 80.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.1N 82.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N 83.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.7N 85.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 26.0N 87.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 27.4N 89.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 76.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 05/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Depression Eighteen Graphics
2024-11-04 19:02:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Nov 2024 18:02:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Nov 2024 15:28:40 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics