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Tropical Storm Ramon Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-10-04 16:35:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 041435 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ramon Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192017 1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017 First light visible satellite imagery show that the system is not very well organized with little evidence of banding features. However, radar images from Puerto Angel Mexico do depict some rainbands over the western portion of the circulation. The current intensity estimate is held at 40 kt, which is a little above the latest Dvorak estimates. Ramon is experiencing strong easterly shear associated with a large anticyclone centered near the Texas/Mexico border. The dynamical model guidance indicate only a slight lessening of this shear over the next few days, so only slight strengthening seems possible. The official intensity forecast follows the model consensus. The center is difficult to locate, but my best guess of the initial motion is 285/6 kt. A large mid-level ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone is forecast to persist, which should cause a mostly westward track over the next several days. The official forecast is a little to the north of the previous one and roughly in the middle of the track model guidance. There is a fairly large spread in the models so this forecast is of low confidence. Although the center of Ramon is expected to remain offshore, the northward adjustment of the track forecast requires the issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the Mexican coast at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 14.9N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 15.1N 97.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 15.2N 100.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 15.5N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 16.0N 106.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 16.5N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 17.0N 112.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 18.0N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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