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Tropical Storm Ramon Forecast Discussion Number 3
2017-10-04 22:35:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 042035 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ramon Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192017 400 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017 Geostationary and microwave satellite imagery, along with Mexican radar data, indicate that Ramon is becoming less organized. Although the estimated intensity estimate will be held at 40 kt based on a ship report that may or may not be correct, weakening seems likely. Strong easterly shear is forecast by the global models to persist over Ramon for the next couple of days, and most of these models show the tropical cyclone dissipating in 24 to 48 hours. Based on that guidance and the current trends, the official forecast now calls for the system to dissipate in 48 hours, and this event could occur sooner than that. The center, if it still exists, continues to be difficult to locate but the system appears to be moving a little faster toward the west-northwest or 285/8 kt. A large mid-level ridge to the north of Ramon is expected to steer the cyclone on a slightly north of westward track until it dissipates. The official track forecast is somewhat faster than the previous one and lies roughly in the middle of the track model guidance. The primary concern with this system is locally heavy rains, which should occur predominately in the immediate coastal zone of southern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 15.2N 97.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 15.3N 99.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 15.6N 102.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 16.0N 105.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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