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Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-11-15 15:45:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 151445 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 800 AM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 The cyclone located several hundred miles south of the Baja California peninsula has continued to get better organized over the past few hours. The system is still sheared from the west, however, recent microwave and first-light visible imagery indicate that the center of the cyclone is better embedded within its convective canopy. Late-arriving ASCAT-C data early this morning had unflagged 35 kt peak winds and the overall structure of the cyclone appears to have improved since then. The initial intensity is therefore increased to 40 kt, and the system is now Tropical Storm Raymond. The largest source of uncertainty in Raymond's forecast is how its structure will evolve during the next 12 hours. ASCAT-C data showed that Raymond's circulation was still rather elongated overnight, however more recent microwave data indicate that the center may be reforming closer to the deep convection. If a new center is in fact consolidating to the east, Raymond should have an opportunity to strengthen today, but if the cyclone remains elongated, little intensification is likely. All of the typically-reliable dynamical intensity guidance shows at least slight strengthening, and the NHC forecast has been increased accordingly. Stronger upper-level winds are likely after that, so weakening is still expected before Raymond nears the Baja California peninsula late Sunday or early Monday, and it is forecast to become a remnant low around that time. Raymond is moving north-northwestward and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the north or north-northeast is likely on Saturday as Raymond moves between a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough located off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. There has been little change in the track guidance since the last forecast and the new NHC forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory. It is worth noting that if Raymond's center reforms to the east, as shown by the HWRF, HMON, and GFS models, an adjustment in that direction will likely be required to the track forecast, while a broader system will more likely move farther west. Rainfall from this system is forecast to spread northward into southern portions of the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 14.1N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 15.1N 109.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 16.4N 110.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 18.1N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 20.2N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 24.3N 110.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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