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Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-11-15 21:36:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 152036 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 200 PM MST Fri Nov 15 2019 Raymond continues to move toward the north-northwest several hundred miles south of the Baja California peninsula. ASCAT-B data at 1624 UTC showed that Raymond's circulation has become a little better defined with maximum winds of 35-40 kt. The initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt based on that data, assuming that the ASCAT slightly under-sampled the strongest winds. The tropical storm is in a moderate shear environment which will likely limit its development potential. Most of the intensity guidance indicates that some slight strengthening is possible today, but a general weakening trend should begin by late Saturday. Raymond is forecast to become post-tropical in about 72 h, but several of the dynamical models now suggest that the cyclone will still have tropical characteristics when it nears the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Sunday or early Monday. That said, there is still a large amount of uncertainty regarding Raymond's structure when, or if, it reaches the coast of the peninsula. Regardless of the cyclone's status, rainfall associated with Raymond will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja California peninsula in a couple of days. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding. Raymond should continue moving generally north-northwestward through tonight. A turn to the north is forecast on Saturday as Raymond moves between a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough located off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. The track guidance has converged on top of the previous NHC forecast track and virtually no change was made to the official forecast, which lies between the corrected consensus aids HCCA and FSSE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 14.7N 109.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 15.6N 109.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 17.2N 110.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 19.0N 110.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 21.0N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 25.1N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Mello
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