je.st
news
Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Discussion Number 11
2017-11-08 21:32:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Nov 08 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 082032 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 500 PM AST Wed Nov 08 2017 The only significant change to Rina in the past several hours is the redevelopment of a small area of deep convection near the center. Otherwise, the large cyclone continues to have a somewhat subtropical appearance in satellite imagery, although available microwave data still indicate Rina is best classified as tropical. The initial wind speed is set to 45 kt based on ASCAT data from earlier today. Rina should lose all deep convection overnight as it moves over very cold waters and is forecast to become a frontal cyclone within 24 hours. Little change in strength is forecast throughout the period, consistent with the global model guidance. The extratropical cyclone is forecast to dissipate near or west of Ireland by day 3, although some of the guidance isn't clear on exactly when that will occur. Rina continues to accelerate northward, now at about 20 kt. The storm has been interacting with an upper-level low, as seen on water vapor images, which has kept the cyclone a bit west of the previous forecast. However, Rina is forecast to turn north-northeastward overnight and accelerate northeastward by Thursday night due to the cyclone leaving the influence of the upper low and entering stronger mid-latitude flow. The models are again west of the previous forecast in the short term, so the new NHC forecast is adjusted to the west, similar to a blend of the latest consensus and corrected consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 40.9N 48.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 44.0N 47.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 09/1800Z 49.5N 42.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 10/0600Z 53.5N 31.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/1800Z 55.5N 19.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Category:Transportation and Logistics