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Tropical Storm Rina Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-11-07 09:44:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Nov 07 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 070844 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 500 AM AST Tue Nov 07 2017 Rina's overall convective cloud pattern has increased is areal coverage in the eastern semicircle, along with a little more deep convection having developed near the well-defined low-level center. In addition, drifting buoy 41506, located about 40 nmi northwest of the center, reported a pressure of 1011.5 mb at 0600 UTC, and that datum was used to estimate the central pressure of 1009 mb. Satellite classifications from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT remain at T2.5, so the intensity is being held at 35 kt for this advisory, which could be conservative given the lower central pressure. The initial motion estimate is 005/10 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. As Rina moves around the western periphery of a strong deep-layer ridge, the cyclone should continue to accelerate toward the north today and then toward the north-northeast on Wednesday. By 48 hours, Rina is expected to get caught up in the mid-latitude westerlies and accelerate even more toward the northeast over the cold waters of the north Atlantic. The NHC track guidance has shifted a little more to left, so the new official forecast track has also been nudged in that direction, close to consensus models TVCN and HCCA. Based on GOES-16 ice physics satellite imagery, the inner-core of Rina's circulation appears to have tightened up some and has also become better defined. Some modest strengthening is forecast for the next 36 h or so due to some baroclinic forcing associated with an approaching vigorous shortwave trough currently located about 400 nmi to the west. By 48 h, the cyclone will be situated over water temperatures colder than 20 deg C and within an environment of increasing deep-layer wind shear. The combination of those two negative factors are expected is result in Rina becoming an extratropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the HCCA intensity consensus model, and also includes input from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 31.4N 49.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 33.7N 49.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 37.0N 48.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 40.4N 47.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 44.4N 44.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/0600Z 53.0N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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