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Tropical Storm SEYMOUR Forecast Discussion Number 20
2016-10-28 04:34:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU OCT 27 2016 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 280234 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202016 800 PM PDT THU OCT 27 2016 A small area of deep convection has been ongoing more than 100 n mi north-northeast of Seymour's center during the past few hours, but it's not really enough to be considered organized. Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB decreased to 3.0/45 kt at 0000 UTC, and more recent ADT estimates are even lower. The advisory intensity is therefore set at 40 kt. Strong shear and colder waters ahead of Seymour should continue the fast weakening trend, and the cyclone is likely to be declared a remnant low in 12 hours or less due to a lack of organized deep convection. Based on global model fields, the remnant low is expected to dissipate just after 48 hours. Seymour has turned northward with an initial motion of 360/9 kt. As a shallow, convection-less low, Seymour is expected to turn northeastward ahead of a cold front during the next 24 hours and then back to the north-northeast by 48 hours. The new NHC track forecast is nearly identical to the previous advisory during the first 24 hours, but is then nudged westward at 36 and 48 hours in line with a general westward shift in the guidance at those times. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 22.0N 123.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 23.1N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 29/0000Z 24.2N 121.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/1200Z 25.5N 121.1W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0000Z 27.2N 120.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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