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Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion Number 11
2024-11-16 09:39:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 160839 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 300 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Satellite imagery and recent scatterometer data indicate that the center of Sara is located between the coast of mainland Honduras and the Bay Islands. Compared to 24 h ago, the storm has become less organized with a decrease in the convection near the center. The ASCAT data showed maximum winds of 35-40 kt in an area of convection to the west and northwest of the center, and based on this the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt. The cyclone remains stationary. A mid-level ridge should strengthen to the north of Sara later today or tonight, which is forecast to cause the tropical cyclone to move slowly toward the west-northwest through Sunday. This motion should bring the center over Belize between the 24-36 h points. After landfall, Sara or its remnants should turn northwestward as it moves across the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. The intensity guidance is in good agreement that not much change in strength should occur before Sara makes landfall in Belize. The intensity forecast will show a little strengthening at 24 h when the system has the most room over water. The cyclone should weaken after landfall, and the dynamical models are in good agreement that it should decay to a open trough before reaching the Bay of Campeche or the Gulf of Mexico. Based on this guidance, the intensity forecast now shows dissipation by 60 h. The global models suggest the possibility that the remnants of Sara could interact with a frontal system to form a non-tropical low near the northern Gulf coast in the early or middle part of next week. The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. 2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, the Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala, the coast of Belize, and portions of the coast of Mexico where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 16.1N 86.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 16.3N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 16.7N 87.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 17.3N 89.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0600Z 18.6N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2024-11-16 09:38:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 160838 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 0900 UTC SAT NOV 16 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COZUMEL MX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BELIZE CITY 34 8 39(47) 13(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) BELIZE CITY 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 1 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GUANAJA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Summary for Tropical Storm Sara (AT4/AL192024)
2024-11-16 09:38:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SARA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY... ...PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 3:00 AM CST Sat Nov 16 the center of Sara was located near 16.1, -86.3 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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