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Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion Number 8
2024-11-15 15:51:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 151451 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 900 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024 Since the prior advisory, Sara has become modestly better organized, with an earlier AMSR2 microwave pass showing some improved structural organization of the outer rainbands with the center located near the northern coast of Honduras. The latest set of coastal surface observations suggest that Sara's center might have reformed just offshore overnight, between the Bay Islands and the northern mainland of Honduras. With the improvement on microwave and geostationary satellite imagery, subjective and objective estimates are a bit higher this morning, and the initial intensity was nudged up to 45 kt at 12 UTC, and remains at that value for this advisory. Sara does appear to be slowing down, but still moving generally westward, estimated at 270/4 kt. A large mid-level ridge draped northwestward of Sara is expected to slow the forward motion of the tropical storm to a crawl later today. However, this ridge is then forecast to shift northeastward on Saturday, and Sara is then expected to resume a somewhat faster westward to west-northwestward motion this weekend, resulting in it moving into the Gulf of Honduras on Saturday and into Belize on Sunday. The model guidance this cycle is quite similar to the prior advisory, and the NHC forecast track is largely an update of the previous one, near the middle of the guidance envelope. Sara's future intensity prior to moving into the Yucatan will largely be governed by if and how far the tropical cyclone is able to remain offshore. The latest track forecast does keep Sara offshore just far enough that it could intensify a bit more before moving onshore in Belize, and the latest NHC intensity is a little higher, showing a 50 kt peak before landfall. This forecast is also roughly in the middle of the guidance envelope. After moving into the Yucatan, Sara is expected to quickly weaken, and what remains of the system when it emerges into the Bay of Campeche in the Gulf of Mexico is not very favorable for redevelopment. Ultimately, Sara is expected to open up into a trough, though its remnant moisture will likely be absorbed in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the next shortwave trough ejecting out of the western United States. The primary hazard associated with Sara will continue to be catastrophic flash flooding, with preliminary reports already suggesting substantial rainfall has occurred near the north coast and in upslope regions of higher terrain in Honduras. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Sara will cause catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over northern portions of Honduras. 2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands, the Caribbean coast of Guatemala and Belize where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 16.1N 86.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 16.1N 86.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 16.2N 86.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 16.5N 87.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 16.8N 88.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 18/0000Z 17.6N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/1200Z 19.2N 91.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
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