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Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 5
2024-11-14 21:58:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 142057 CCA TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 5...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 400 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 Corrected country name in the intensity forecast section ...SARA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 83.5W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northern coast of Honduras form Punta Sal eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border * The Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 83.5 West. Sara is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A slow west-northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move near the northern coast of Honduras during the next couple of days, and approach the coast of Belize on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible if the center of Sara remains offshore of the northern coast of Honduras. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center, primarily to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Honduras during the next couple of days. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Nicaragua through tonight. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Brown
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Sara Graphics
2024-11-14 21:46:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 20:46:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 14 Nov 2024 21:22:59 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Sara Forecast Discussion Number 5
2024-11-14 21:44:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 142044 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 400 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 Convective banding associated with the cyclone continued to improve especially over the western semicircle of the system after the release of the 1500 UTC advisory. A couple of Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that have flew through the system early this afternoon reported dropsonde data that supported a minimum pressure of 998 mb and peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 42 kt. These data supported the upgrade of the system to Tropical Storm Sara on the 1800 UTC intermediate advisory. The latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from both SAB and TAFB also support 35 kt, therefore the initial intensity for this advisory is at that value. The forward speed of Sara is beginning to decrease as expected. The cyclone is now moving westward or 270 degrees at 9 kt. Sara should continue to move westward during the next couple of days to the south of a strong mid-level ridge, however a continued deceleration of Sara's forward speed is expected. By Sunday, the center of the ridge is forecast to move eastward over Florida which should cause Sara to turn west-northwestward when it approaches Belize and the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. Most of the track guidance has nudged northward this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The new track continues to be along or just north of the coast of northern Honduras and it is in good agreement with the latest consensus aids. Environmental conditions are conducive for some strengthening during the next couple of days, but the main inhibiting factor is the sprawling structure of the cyclone and its close proximity to land. Given that the system is forecast to pass very close to the northern coast of Honduras, only modest strengthening is suggested by most of the guidance. The NHC intensity forecast calls for some strengthening during the next couple of days, follow by little change in intensity until the system moves over the Yucatan peninsula. It should be noted that a more northern track, could result in additional strengthening, but the global models and most of the intensity guidance does not favor that scenario. The global models indicate that the system will weakening quickly while it moves over the Yucatan peninsula and that the circulation is not likely to survive the passage over the peninsula. Therefore, the new forecast now calls for dissipation by day 5. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Sara will cause potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over portions of northern Honduras. 2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo heavy rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands where tropical storm warnings are in effect. 4. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late this weekend where there is a risk of strong winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest forecast updates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 15.9N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 16.0N 84.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 16.1N 85.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 16.1N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 16.1N 86.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 16.3N 87.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 16.7N 88.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 19.3N 90.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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