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Tropical Storm Sara Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2024-11-15 03:53:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024 939 FONT14 KNHC 150253 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM SARA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 0300 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SARA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COZUMEL MX 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BELIZE CITY 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 8(18) 13(31) X(31) X(31) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) GUANAJA 34 63 9(72) 4(76) 1(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) GUANAJA 50 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Summary for Tropical Storm Sara (AT4/AL192024)
2024-11-15 03:52:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND SARA JUST INLAND ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 10:00 PM EST Thu Nov 14 the center of Sara was located near 15.8, -84.5 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Sara Public Advisory Number 6
2024-11-15 03:52:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 882 WTNT34 KNHC 150252 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 1000 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND SARA JUST INLAND ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 84.5W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM WNW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Nicaragua has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the northeastern coast of Nicaragua. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northern coast of Honduras from Punta Sal eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border * The Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 84.5 West. Sara is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A slow west-northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Sara will move close to the northern coast of Honduras through early Saturday, then approach the coast of Belize on Sunday. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some further strengthening is possible during the next couple of days if the center of Sara remains offshore of the northern coast of Honduras. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml? rainqpf#contents WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Honduras during the next couple of days. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics
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