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Tropical Storm Selma Forecast Discussion Number 3
2017-10-27 22:35:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 272035 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Selma Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202017 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 The center of Selma became exposed shortly after the issuance of the previous advisory, however, deep convection has redeveloped near and just south of the center this afternoon. The system is feeling the affects of moderate northeasterly shear and does not appear to have strengthened. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB are 2.0 (30 kt), however, the initial intensity is maintained at 35 kt in agreement with the overnight ASCAT data. Unfortunately, the ASCAT satellites did not pass over the tropical cyclone today. Satellite and microwave fixes show that Selma has turned more poleward and is now moving north-northwestward or 345/6 kt. A large mid-latitude trough is forecast to move over the Gulf of Mexico tonight and Saturday which should cause Selma to turn northward later today or tonight. The 12Z track guidance has come into better agreement and brings Selma onshore in El Salvador or eastern Guatemala on Saturday, and little change was made to the previous NHC forecast track. Moderate to strong northeasterly shear is expected to remain over the tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours, and little overall change in strength is expected before landfall. Selma should rapidly weaken and dissipate over the mountains of Central America Saturday night or Sunday. It should be noted that the primary threat associated with Selma is heavy rainfall, with totals possibly as high as 10 inches over portions of El Salvador and Guatemala. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 11.7N 89.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 12.5N 89.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 13.6N 89.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/0600Z 14.8N 89.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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