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Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 44
2018-10-10 10:43:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 100842 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 200 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018 This morning's conventional satellite presentation reveals little change in Sergio's cloud pattern. The majority of the deep convection resides in the north portion of the circulation with some new bursts developing in the south semicircle. Consequently, the initial intensity will be kept again at 60 kt, and is supported by the TAFB and SAB Dvorak intensity estimates. Gradual spin down of the cyclone is still expected to commence soon as Sergio begins its trek over decreasing sea surface temperatures and into a region of increasing southwesterly vertical shear and a drier mid-level troposphere. Over the weekend, after quickly moving over the central Baja California peninsula, Sergio should weaken further over the state of Sonora in northwestern Mexico, degenerate into a remnant low early Sunday, and is forecast to dissipate over the Southern Plains of the United States, although this dissipation could occur sooner, as indicated in the European global models. The initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, or 065/10 kt, within the mid-tropospheric southwesterly flow produced by a mid-latitude trough extending southwestward over the eastern Pacific from the southwestern United States. Sergio should continue to accelerate toward the east-northeast or northeast over the next few days, and approach Baja California Sur on early Friday. The NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory and is close to the various multi-model consensus aids. The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants will likely be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain in the Mexico state of Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains and the Ozarks through the weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 17.5N 124.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 18.8N 122.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 20.6N 120.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 23.0N 117.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 25.4N 114.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 30.3N 107.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 14/0600Z 34.5N 97.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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