Home Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 52
 

Keywords :   


Tropical Storm Sergio Forecast Discussion Number 52

2018-10-12 10:55:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 120855 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number 52 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 300 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018 Sergio's cloud shield is well separated from the poorly organized surface circulation and is confined to the northwest quadrant. Subjective satellite intensity estimates yield a reduction in the initial intensity to 45 kt for this advisory. Weakening should continue this morning due to cool oceanic sea surface temperatures and belligerent southwesterly shear, but Sergio is still expected to be a tropical storm as it make landfall in the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur. Afterward, Sergio should quickly become a depression and eventually dissipate as it traverses the rugged terrain of the northwestern Mexico state of Sonora. The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 045/21 kt, within the deep-layer southwesterly flow produced by a mid-latitude trough situated just west of the California coast. This synoptic steering pattern should steer Sergio toward the northeast at an accelerated rate of speed. A 36 hour post-tropical/remnant low point is maintained to simply represent the inland motion of Sergio. The NHC forecast lies in the middle of the various multi-model consensus aids, and is basically an update of the previous package. The primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues to be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur, Sonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and Arkansas through the weekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 26.1N 113.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 28.2N 111.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 13/0600Z 31.0N 107.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 13/1800Z 33.8N 103.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

Category:Transportation and Logistics

Latest from this category

All news

01.11Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
01.11Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
31.10Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
31.10Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
31.10Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
31.10Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
31.10Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
31.10Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
Transportation and Logistics »
01.11Boeing makes 38% pay rise offer in bid to end strike
01.11The house paints that promise much more than colour
01.11Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
01.11Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
01.11Technology adoption: What's on the ag tech horizon for 2025
01.11Technology adoption: What's on the ag tech horizon for 2025
01.11How Japan's youngest CEO transformed Hello Kitty
31.10Unicharm to Expand in Africa
More »