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Tropical Storm Sergio Public Advisory Number 49
2018-10-11 16:39:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 111439 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sergio Advisory Number 49 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018 ...SERGIO HEADING FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN A HURRY... HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.2N 118.7W ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to Bahia San Juan Bautista and has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch south of Mulege. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to Bahia San Juan Bautista. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Sergio. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 118.7 West. Sergio is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). This track with a continued increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will approach the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur early Friday and then move over mainland Mexico by Friday evening. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through today, but Sergio will soon be over cooler water and gradual weakening should then begin. Sergio is still forecast to reach the central Baja California peninsula as a tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches across the central peninsula of Baja California and Sonora through Friday. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within mountainous terrain. By this weekend, rainfall associated with Sergio will move into portions of the Southern Plains and the Ozarks, with storm total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches and possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding, particularly in the Southern Plains. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the western coast of the Baja California peninsula by tonight and will spread to the east coast of the peninsula tonight or early Friday. These conditions could reach the coast of mainland Mexico late Friday. SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will begin to affect much of the Baja California Peninsula later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM PDT. Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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